Thursday 8 December 2011

The Channel System: TTM, TMA Price Zone, SHI Channel and High-Low ZigZag

I've been fooling around a lot with the TTM scalper indicator and TMA Price Zone indicator (bot can be found at Forex-TSD elite section). Together they make excellent predictions of market tops and bottoms, without too may false signals. However, I do think that there is something missing with these two indicators, and I figure a good channel setup will solidify my prediction of these market tops and bottoms. To do this I'm using the SHI Channel indicator. Here's I picture of my setup:

Indicators:
  • SHI Channel (green parallel lines)
  • TMA Price Zone (blue and magenta dots; need to subscribe to Elite Section in Forex-TSD)
  • TTM Scalper (orange and blue bars; need to subscribe to Elite Section in Forex-TSD)
  • High-Low ZigZag (red lines)


The idea is the SHI Channel indicator will automatically show you where a potential channel is (keep in mind that this channel will recalculate to better fit the past price action), and the other indicators confirm the reversal when the price bounces off the channel. So, the strategy:

Enter:
  • Price stops at the SHI Channel line
  • High-Low ZigZiag confirms the potential reversal point
  • TMA Price Zone displays a dot
  • TTM displays a coloured bar in the direction of the potential reversal

Thursday 1 December 2011

Fractal Breakouts: Using Fractal Channels and Fractal Dimensions

This is a cool idea, but it has its flaws. The problem that we all know about fractals is that it displays the direction of the price action just a little too late (3 bars or more too late). The fractals do, however, provide good support and resistance levels. So, the idea is to wait for the price to exceed the fractal support/resistance line, and then enter your trade.

I found a couple indicators that can make this a little easier (all found on Forex-TSD):
FractalChannel (red and blue lines on chart)
FractalChannelh (histogram with red and blue bar on the bottom)
FractalMD_v1 (red and blue dots on the chart) (would need a subscription to Forex-TSD to get this indicator)


On the chart above the indicator FractalChannelh displays bars when the price exceeds the fractal support/resistance levels (show by the red and blue lines produced by the indicator FractalChannel). First off, the problem with this indicator is that it does not know when to stop displaying coloured bars until the next fractal point comes up, which will be 2 to 3 bars in the future. So you can not use this indicator by itself. Secondly, you also have to wait until the bar closes, because a lot of the time you have the price move pass the fractal point, only to reverse and have the bar close below the fractal point. Because of these problems I like to keep the FractalChannel indicator on my chart, just so I can see for myself why or why not the histogram bars are displayed.

To solve the problem of waiting for the next fractal to show up and give you your exit point, I would use the indicator FractalMD_v1 (Multiple Dimension Fractals) to determine my exit point. I found that it displays the dots right at the close of current bar it believes to be the top/bottom. This seems like a perfect fractal indicator, but unfortunately the FractalMD_v1 indicator does repaint itself. Even though it repaints we can still use it for an exit. It may display the dot a little early, but at least you would walk away with some profit points or a small loss.

Summary:
  • Enter when price bar closes above/below FractalChannel lines, and FractalChannelh displays the corresponding colour bar
  • Exit when FractalMD_v1 displays a colour dot

Tuesday 8 November 2011

Making Use of Cycle Indicators (Part 1?): TMA and Kelly's Cycle Identifier

Most cycle identifiers repaint, and the ones that don't are often not useful. I've hear from a veriety of forums that most of the authors of these cycle identifiers have given up on the idea of ever finding the non-repainting cycle identifying indicator. I am certainly with those authors, since I do not believe we'll ever find the perfect cycle identifier. I've done the searches for them, and I always come up empty handed.

There is, however, the repainting indicators that remain from all that searching. But what could you do with indicators that change their mind? Well, you use them for everything BUT entry points.

I believe that cycle identifiers are the best at two things:
  1. Determining the prevailing direction of the price action, and
  2. Exit points
A number of my indicators are early-indicators and tend to have a lot of false signals, but with the cycle identifier I can filter half of the signals by predicting the direction of the price action. You do, however, need to have a cycle identifier that does not repaint past the typical point that your early-indicator would show as an entry point.

The best one I've found so far is a TMA indicator I found in the Elite section of Forex-TSD. This seems to work quite well with a NonLag Moving Average Histogram I also picked up in Forex-TSD (not sure if I found that one in the elite section or the public section):



The TMA does repaint like most cycle identifiers do, but if I use the NonLag Histogram (which does not repaint) as my entry point when the colour changes, I can then use TMA as a filter for the false signals produce from the NonLag Histogram, and indicate where my next top or bottom will appear. I haven't made any money from this setup yet (still playing with the settings), but I do believe that this goose will produce some golden eggs.



As I also mentioned, you can also use these cycle identifiers as exit points. Cycle identifiers are great exit strategies since they try to predict the top/bottom, and if the cycle identifier fails to find the top/bottom, then you still would end up with profit. The one problem with this is that you need a cycle identifier that does not repaint frequently. One of the better ones is Kelly's Cycle Identifier. This indicator is not too quick to draw out a top or bottom (given the right settings), and keep you in the game a little longer than a trailing stop or a take profit. The problem with this setup is that you have to watch the chart constantly in order to catch that possible top/bottom before it reverses. 

I hate to say this because everyone says it, but these systems do not work every time. You find unique circumstances where you will be left with a loss. This might occur when your spread is too large, and your predicted price action can't penetrate it; or the early indicator gives a false signal; or the cycle identifier marks a position at the same time the early indicator says, "Hey, come on in man", but the cycle identifier soon changes its mind and your left a loss... and so on.
So, keep in mind Money Management, and stop-loss strategies to prevent too much loss.

Monday 31 October 2011

Rainbow Volume: Colour Based System from Technical Analysis of Stock & Commodites

In the magazine Technical Analysis of Stock & Commodities (TASC) (July, 2011 issue) there was an a article on short-term trading using a colour based system that looked very interesting, but there was only code for Metatrader 5 and not Metatrader 4. So, I whipped up a Metatrader 4 version, with a new option (...and hopefully down the road there will be some more additions to this indicator):
  • You can set a multi-coloured bar to determine how much of one colour is dominating the rest, or have the standard version with one colour (unforunately, the multi-coloured option only works as the price action currently changes)
Now, how it works is that the indicator takes the value of the current volume and the current price and compares it to the volume and price of n periods ago:
  • Green if current price is and volume is greater than the price and volume of n periods ago
  • Blue if the current price is greater than price n periods ago, but not the volume n periods ago
  • Orange if the current price and the volume is less than the price and volume n periods ago
  • Red if the current price is less than the price n periods ago, but not the volume n periods ago
The rules:
  • Buy when it is Green or Blue
  • Sell when it is Red of Orange
  • Exit with a trailing stop, or if you're really adventurous you exit at the opposite colour change

If you want to know how the full details of how it works, then be sure to check out the article. The website is in My Top Web Sites sidebar.You can download this indicator from the sidebar My Indicators, or by clicking the link below. Enjoy!

Rainbow Volume

Tuesday 25 October 2011

T3 / Triangular Moving Average with BB MACD: Who Will Be Named Champion?

I'm still playing with BB MACD. I think it is a great indicator. But like every other indicator out there, it has its flaws:
  • If you are trading the dots outside of the bollinger bands you would find that it can be a little late to the show
  • If you are trading the change in colour of the dots you would have a number of false movements, not a lot, but enough to make you nervous
So, I've been looking for something to filter this out. I've been browsing Forex-TSD's Elite/Advanced Elite sections for such an indicator, and I think a found a good one worth mentioning. It is a T3 with a Trianglar Moving Average compiled together in a unique setting that, when the two averages cross each other it provides very good entry signals (not sure on the exits just yet). Here's a picture of what it looks like (blue lines are the entry points):


Now, after I lined up all these lines with the T3/TMA and BB MACD entry points, I realize that I could just remove the BB MACD, and have the T3/TMA as a standalone indicator,  assuming that the exit points work ok. So, without the BB MACD entry signals tied in with the T3/TMA we get the below chart:


In this particular time frame (not the charts timeframe, but rather the span of the date) I calculated the how many pips were made in each chart:
  • T3/TMA with BB MACD:
    - 9820 pips total
    - 892 pip average
    - 457 minimum
    - 2508 maximum
  • T3/TMA without BB MACD:
    - 13368 pips total
    - 1215 pip average
    - 519 minimum
    - 3169 maximum
Hmmmm.... might have to give BB MACD the boot.

Well, for now anyway. More testing is need I would think. I believe I'm going to look for a bad situation for the T3/TMA on the charts (if I can find one), and see if BB MACD can correct it, or rather filter it.

Monday 24 October 2011

Review Forex-TSD: The Good, The Bad, The Overwelming

So I finally decided to subscribe to Forex-TSD, gaining access to their Elite and Advanced Elite sections. So far it has its good and bad points (remember: this is my personal opinion of the websites performance, and could be a more smoother experience for someone else):
The Good:
  • LOTS of indicators and Expert Advisers (EA), both inventive and useful (in fact, there are so many indicators/EA's on there website that it can be overwhelming; remember to stay calm and breathe)
  • Great ideas and theories posted on their forums
  • Very responsive to indicator/EA requests from other traders/payees
  • Indicators that are published on the wonderful magazine Technical Analysis of Stock & Commodities (TASC); see My Top Websites.
The Bad:
  • Would be very convenient if the indicators/EA's were displayed and available for download in a new indicator/EA section, rather than tracking down the source. They did have such a section, but I was disappointed when the indicators/EA's where not available to download; even upon searching such indicators/EA's on there website I still could not find them. I sent an email to the administrator asking about this, but I haven't received any reply yet.
  • Often these indicators are not entirely new, in that they are one already-known indicator distorted to fit a new idea, or an old idea, ex. RSI with NonLag MA, or Stochastic with CCI and RSI mixed with a Hull Average, etc...
  • I also didn't have access to My Profile on the website, and every time I click it I get the 'Sign up for Elite/Advanced Elite section to get access' page. Also included this in my email to the administrator.
I do believe the bad points can be fixed, either with me finding a way around such problems, or the admin fixing a couple things for me. I also believe that if you have MetaTrader for a trading platform, then you would benefit to signing up to this website. It's a monthly payment of $40 (US) for the Elite Section, or $90 (US) for the Advanced Elite Section, and if you are already doing well with your trading then this payment should be a problem. In fact you could just go crazy and download as much indicators and EA's as you can for the month, and get out with only paying the one month fee.

Wednesday 19 October 2011

New Indicators: BB MACD, SVE RSI Fisher, SEFC - Bull/Bear, and Kelly's Cycle Identifier


Firstly, we have the BB MACD indicator. This indicator is almost a stand-alone indicator if only it had good exit points (the exits are ok, but I believe an exit could be better handle with stop-loss, take-profits, or trailing stops).

Secondly, the... *inhale*.... SVE Inverse Fisher Transformation RSI ... *gasp*... This is also a wonderful indicator that displays early entries in a very clear way when compared to the standard RSI indicator.

Thirdly, the Kelly Cycle Identifier. This is a beefed-up version of ZigZag and the 3 Level ZZ Semafor indicators, and yes, it does repaint just like the ZigZag and 3 Level ZZ Semafor. But, despite this drawback, Kelly's Cycle Identifier is still very useful.

And Lastly, the SEFC Bull/Bear indicator. This will display the prevailing trend in a blue (bullish) or red (bearish) colour. Unfortuanly, this indicator also repaints. At times this can be very inconvient, but for the most part it helps out quite a bit in filtering out the false signals.

In addition to these indicators I also have a 5 and 8 EMA crossover with alerts to give me another early entry signal.

Now I got these indicators from a variety of forums from Forex-TSD and Forex Factory (See Top Websites side bar), and each one was used for another system. These systems seem to appear to work (I did not test them myself; just going on what other people have posted on the forums), but I was more interested in playing with the indicators to find a more optimum system for myself. I like playing with the 1 hour -1 week charts because it allows me to make mistakes and still walk away with a little bit of profit, or breakeven (I get into that on a later post). A lot of the forums never called for high timeframes, and was more gear towards scalping. I wasn't too keen on that (I don't have the patience to look at my screen minute by minute).

So, let me show ya a how I have it set up:



The plan is:
Entry (in order):
  •  Kelly's Cycle Identifier (the black spikes in the picture) will show a Major Top signal (red bar in a black spike) or a Major Bottom (blue bar in a black spike)
  • SEFC Bull/Bear indicator (the one with the blue and red vertical bars) will display the prevailing trend as blue for bull and red for bear
  • BB MACD ... OR ... EMA Cross Arrow will appear (choose which ever one comes first) 
Exit:
  • Stop-Loss (level of your personal preference), Take-Profit (your personal preference), and/or Trailing-Stop
  • Wait for the a black spike to appear to exit (wait for the close before exiting on the black speak; remember, it can repaint and change its mind)
  • Wait for the Major Top/Bottom of the Cycle Identifier (more risky, but it can payoff)
Now, I have not fully tested this system, so what you are getting here is just an idea... and hopefully a good one.  

Wednesday 5 October 2011

Crude News

I've never been much on the Fundamentals as a way to read the market. Most of the language these Fundamentalists spout out are well over my head (at least for the moment anyway). But don't get me wrong here, I do believe that the Fundamentals play a part in determining future price action. Just at the moment I'm more focused on the Technical Analysis of future price action.

There are a couple reports and news articles I'll look over, and use for my analysis. I found that a number of these reports and important news events are conveniently placed on the Bloomberg site. They call it the Economic Calendar, and this is where I get my Fundamental information (see My Top Websites on the right sidebar).

I found that out of all of news/reports given on the site the EIA Petroleum Report is the most significant in what will happen to the price action of Crude Oil. Often the price will fluxuate rapidly at 7:30am (10:30am EST) when the report is released. One can get in there when the report is released and go with the price action, but often I found that the price moved rapidly just before the report is released, meaning some people are getting this information earlier than the rest, or, and more likely, some traders are assuming where the price will go. Because of the latter point the price may go in the opposite direction of what the report says. This doesn't happen all the time, but it is something to consider when jumping in. So, be very careful when this report is released, and follow your indicators afterward on a smaller timeframe.

Tuesday 4 October 2011

WEVOMO + Adaptive Smoothing Moving Average in a Guppy Setup

I've gone through a number of Moving Averages (some of the Moving Averages I have in the previous post are not correct; I'll have that fixed today though). I visited the website Forex-TSD (see my Top Website List to right panel), and found a indicator that had all the Moving Averages together in a convenient package, so that was very helpful in my MA comparisons. I also found a another indicator that weighs volume, movement-adjustments, and a linear weighted moving average together to produce very accurate lines (the author, mladen, called it WEVOMO; this author is worth tracking if you have a Metatrader platform because he puts out really good indicators from time-to-time; as of late most of the really good indicators are being produced in the 'Elite' section / payment section of Forex-TSD). In addition, the author also produced a Adaptive Moving Average that has the amazing ability to resist the small news jumps that can cause us so much grief. This indicator is called Adaptive Smoothing, and it comes with a symbiotic indicator called the Adaptive Smoothing Alpha.
I decided to put the WEVOMO to a Guppy Multi-Moving Average setup with the Adaptive Smoothing MA as the early indicator, and it came out like this:
   
I gotta admit, if this setup doesn't work me then it can be at least the coolest looking setup I've ever made.
The idea with this setup is:
  • If the Adaptive Smoothing MA (large pink line) moves passed the last blue line then we buy/sell
  • If the Adaptive Smoothing Ma remains in the blue lines, then we do nothing
  • The 200 period WEVOMO (white lines) acts a buffer for some of the whipsaw moves (doesn't work 100% of the time, and it is almost unnecessary, but I still feel it necessary to include it)
  • Fast WEVOMO (red lines) acts as the error bars for the Adaptive Smoothing MA (the 'retail traders')
  • Slow WEVOMO (blue lines) acts the main buffer system (the 'big money')
 I still need time to work it out, but yeah, this is the skinny of it.

Monday 3 October 2011

Moving Average Derivatives Applied to GMMA Methods

So, I spent every moment of my spare time this weekend to finding a better Moving Average to be applied to the Guppy Multiple Moving Average idea, and here is what I got (includes standard 200 EMA white line):

Hull Moving Average:


NonLag Moving Average:


SSL (fast):


Step Moving Average:


Volume Weighted Moving Average (VWMA):


Kaufman Adaptive Moving Average (KAMA):

Exponential Moving Average with colour price cross (EMA):


This is what I got so far (still plenty more moving averages that I can play with: Fractal Moving Averages, Linear Weighted Moving Average (LWMA), Wilder Exponential Moving Average (WEMA), etc...). You may have noticed that some of these charts have the moving averages change colours, this is because the price crosses the line, and results in a colour change; a useful visual. 
So far, I think the Kaufman Adaptive Moving Average (KAMA) is the best alternative to the standard GMMA. I haven't tested this fully, but I think the KAMA could work as an earlier indicator than the GMMA; allowing for more trades to take place. The EMA with the colour price cross is also very useful in that the colour change can give you a better perspective as to when an entry point is merited.

As for the other GMMA hybrids, I think could tweak them a little more, but I don't think I'll get the same results as the KAMA.  



Friday 30 September 2011

Guppy Multi-Moving Average (GMMA)

Found this interesting indicator today. Not too bad. Has the potential to make a great deal of profit, since it gets a person to hold longer. The idea is based on a swack load of EMA's: Fast EMA's (3,5,8,10,12 and 15) and Slow EMA's (30,35,40,45,50 and 60). Now when the Slow EMA's 'compress' (tangle together) there is no trend; when the Slow EMA's 'expand' the trend is back. When the Fast EMA's 'compress' the market is going sideways; when the Fast EMA's expand the trend is starting again.
Now, entry points occur when the Fast EMA's pass over the Slow EMA's, and both begin to 'expand' away from each other, as well as themselves (see example graph below).
Exiting comes when the Fast EMA's 'compress'.
And that's it!....

....But there is some drawbacks with this indicator:

  • The typical timeframe for this indicator is the daily charts, and from there the entry points are few in number (even less entry points if you wait for all the EMA's to cross the 200 Moving Average; described in video below).
  • When there is a possible entry point I found that the price will start to go in the other direction, and the trend will die.
  • The exit points are not great since it take too long for it to realize that the trend is over and should be going in the other direction (I tried a parabolic SAR to find my exit points: wasn't too bad, but it wasn't the adrenalin inducing excitement I was hoping for). 

Check out this 3 part video on YouTube that explains the indicator a lot better than I can:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mfiYfWORHGI

All-in-all, this indicator could be very useful for a long term trade, but on an intray day basis I don't think it is very useful.
There is another indicator out there that is similar to the GMMA, and that the Rainbow MMA. Again, it has the same problems as the GMMA.
I wonder what this indicator would look and act like if a Hull Moving Average, or a JMA, or a Volume-Weighted Moving Average was used instead...?
Food for thought.


7 to 8am (Pacific) Reversal

Saw this pattern yesterday after my last post:
For Light, Sweet Crude Oil Futures at 7 to 8am Pacific Time, or EST 10 to 11am, there is a reversal. I went and crunched some numbers with excel and found that there is a 87% chance of getting a reversal during that time period (this would be within 4 months worth of data; might have to increase that look-back period to get more accurate results). So, in a 1 hour timeframe I would observe if the 7am bar is up or down at the close, and bet against that 7am price direction. Again, I would use a very small take-profit limit (i.e. 5 points + spread).
I also thought that this could be just a coincidence. So, I looked at the 5-6, 6-7, and 8-9 reversal possibility (4 month period). I got a 86% chance for 5-6, 86% chance for 6-7, and 75% chance for 8-9. It would seem I picked the most likely reversal period, but it is not far off from the rest. I'm curious if there is some kind of way to take advantage of the high reversal rate of all three hourly price actions...?
I looked up this phenomena, and found that there is a general rule saying that 10:30am (EST) is a likely time for a reversal because it is the likely time for the `big money` come in.

Here's a daily chart showing all the hourly reversals that did not work (Purple is 6-7, Orange is 7-8, Red is 5-6):

 

Thursday 29 September 2011

1-2-3 Detrend

I've been fooling around with a couple indicators, and one that stands out is the Detrending Price Oscillator (DPO). The default setting on this indicator work well in the long term aspect, but it doesn't catch them a lot of cycles. So, I changed the settings to its lowest possible period number (period = 1), and now it shows every single price move and down... naturally, it is wrong a lot of the time. !HOWEVER! if this fast DPO drops below/above zero and remains there for three price moves (three bars), then we have a trend, or at least the tail end of it. My exit is just a small take-profit limit (5 points + spread), and as always the stop-loss is set just below/above the low/high of the previous bar.

One of the best parts about this is that it works even when volatility is low (for light sweet crude this would be when the US market is not open). 

I'm using this at a 30 minute timeframe on Light, Sweet Crude Oil Futures. Here's an Example:

 

Monday 12 September 2011

....hmmm, its been a while

Looks like I haven't been publishing a lot of post lately, but that's only because I've been trying to figure out a better system the last 2 months. Sadly I'm still working on it, but I believe I'm getting closer to my holy grail here.
I've found a couple indicators that SEEM to be doing the trick, but I've only looked back to the past to determine the profitability of these indicators. I've been fooled before with indicators that re-paint themselves (those are very disappointing moments), so I can't say for sure that what I got is going to work the way I want it to.
I should be doing this in a demo account, but I tend to put little pressure on myself on finding the best entry point on demo accounts, and instead just jump in all willy-nilly. So I'm going to use a real account on very small volumes. I've done a few so far, but I'm still not completely satisfied (I go on daily charts). I have a strange suspicion that one of my main indicators changes its mind to look better. The indicator is an Adaptive Kaufman Moving Average (KAMA) set at a very fast setting:  fast = 1, slow = 11. I chose this setting because of another indicator that I use that has the same settings, and gives very reliable entry points. This other indicator is called EMA Crossover (this indicator, however, will change it's mind and remove its alert if the price moves in the opposite direction of the previous close; now use it only for the alert sound it gives off).
I also have another KAMA with standard settings: fast = 8, slow = 21. This give me an overall idea of market direction, as well as providing a couple good entry points.

I have a score of indicators on both of my computers right now. Each of which have a very responsive display (zero lag on a couple of them), and seem to provide very good entry points.But what seems perfect often ends up being less so, or not at all.
Dam delusions of grandeur!

Friday 24 June 2011

June 24, 2011 Part 2

Well, it looks like I got it right today. The Light, Sweet Crude Oil Future contract fell to 89.80 today, and promptly came back up. The day is still not done, at least for the market, but I'm pretty positive that it's not going to hit any new lows for the remainder of the day. People might be selling before the weekend making the the price drop, but I don't think it could get any lower today.

I think I found my Holy Grail here people. Now I'm just starting to figure this new and wonder method out, and I still need to test it vigorously with my demo account, but I'm pretty confident that it'll work out. The planning is going without a hitch, and I have all weekend to prove myself wrong. It sucks that I have to wait all weekend to really test it though. I always seem to get these new ideas on Friday.

June 24, 2011 Part 1

I woke up late this morning thinking that I would have missed out on whatever jump or fall the oil market would experience when the US GDP report came out, and surprisingly it didn't change much. I would have thought that a monumental report like the GDP would have a huge affect on the oil market, but I seem to be corrected. It would be a lot nicer if I had the necessary reports layed out in front of me that would affect the oil market. Usually from the news reports I get "... so and so released this report and crude oil prices dropped...", now where the hell do they get these reports?!
Well, I guess I just need to keep my ear more to the ground if I'm going to find these wonderful reports.

The price of LSCO has been slowly oscillating downward all night, now it seems like it could change direction and head back up. But it hasn't reached a low point of any kind, so I'm actually kind of partial to the market heading downward a little more for a bounce at the 89 low.

Thursday 23 June 2011

June 23, 2011 Part 2

Well, my prediction was true, it did go to the 89 range (89.70 to be exact). I should gave a more accurate prediction, but I garentee that it wouldn't be 89.70... probably more like the low 89 range.

I've been working on some stats here today, and I've come up with some interesting figures. I'm hoping to make my predictions a little more accurate from these stats. But I can say for sure that it'll be any good though... I am just fooling around with some numbers is all.

The new MIDAS/VWAP indicator work pretty good today. It helped me with my my exit points mostly.

All in all, it was a good profit day!

June 23, 2011 Part 1

I would have predicted that the price would fall to about 91.50 on the Light, Sweet Crude Oil Futures contract, but when I woke up this morning it was already down to 90.33! It fell 412 pips! Amazing.
I haven't looked at the news to see if Greece defaulted or something, but it sure seems like something big happened in the news.

I found a much better MIDAS indicator on the net last night, and it seems to be working out quite well, even in today's huge dive (you can find this indicator on the Forex-TSD forum:
http://www.forex-tsd.com/indicators-metatrader-4/21565-midas-indicator-2.html). This indicator is a lot more user-friendly, it seems to be fairly accurate... so far.

So, if the light, sweet crude market can fall to such low levels, it can probably fall a little further. But I would expect a bounce at some point. The greatest difference I've seen it bounce from is 500 points, so 89 would be my guess as to when it stops to bounce.

Major Support 1: 85.04
Major Support 2: 87.15
Minor Support 1: 89.55
Minor Support 2: 88.99

Major Resistance 1: 95.66
Major Resistance 2: 94.33
Minor Resistance 1: 91.84
Minor Resistance 2: 91.26

Wednesday 22 June 2011

June 22, 2011 Part 2

So the day has ended, and my prediction was kind of close with the high being 95.68. Not too bad: about 30 points off from my 96 prediction, and about 54 points off my 'precise' prediction of 96.24.

The MIDAS support/resistance lines worked ok as a watchable entry/exit point. Like I wrote before, it's a little off the mark, and it's a pain to create lines. But I'll still go through with it, and see if I can perfect it.

June 22, 2011 Part 1

I learned a wonderful thing here today: Hedging. This is the best method for reducing those losing profits. I don't know enough of it to go crazy with it, but it does seem like a great way to put a safety net over your capital in case of a losing trade.

I'm also fooling around with a new resistance and support method called MIDAS. Developed by a pysicist named Paul Levine it uses Volume Weighted Average Pricing (VWAP) to determine support and resistance lines that curve (that's the skinny of it). So far it's not too bad. It doesn't get it right all the time, and the indicator I have you have to manually put in the date and time of the high and low points (I know I'm little lazy on that, but it would save me time to have those support/resistance lines displayed automatically). But all in all it's pretty good. When I say "it doesn't get it right all the time", I mean that the price can go through the support/resistance lines, but it DOES stop ABOUT that given line... so yeah, not too bad.

So, I have a prediction today:
Light, Sweet Crude Oil Future for July will be going to a price of, roughly, 96. I can give you a more presice guess, but I can garuntee that it'll be wrong. Not to bring myself down or anything, I know that it'll never be bang on. So yeah, here you go:  96.20

Major support at 91.49, Minor Support 1 at 92.87, Minor Support 2 at 93.24
Major resistance at 96.68, Minor Resistance 1 at 96.18, Minor Resistance 2 at 95.77

Friday 17 June 2011

The Beginning

In the beginning there was a rookie day trader.
Slowly, but surely, said skills have been improving.
It has been 4 months since I first started, and so far I have lost the majority of my original investment. I'm down to a third of what I have invested, and I'm down to about a sixth of my top total investment capital.
I thought I'd share some of my trading experience, and maybe get the odd helpful comment on what I could do to further my investment knowledge.