Friday 24 June 2011

June 24, 2011 Part 2

Well, it looks like I got it right today. The Light, Sweet Crude Oil Future contract fell to 89.80 today, and promptly came back up. The day is still not done, at least for the market, but I'm pretty positive that it's not going to hit any new lows for the remainder of the day. People might be selling before the weekend making the the price drop, but I don't think it could get any lower today.

I think I found my Holy Grail here people. Now I'm just starting to figure this new and wonder method out, and I still need to test it vigorously with my demo account, but I'm pretty confident that it'll work out. The planning is going without a hitch, and I have all weekend to prove myself wrong. It sucks that I have to wait all weekend to really test it though. I always seem to get these new ideas on Friday.

June 24, 2011 Part 1

I woke up late this morning thinking that I would have missed out on whatever jump or fall the oil market would experience when the US GDP report came out, and surprisingly it didn't change much. I would have thought that a monumental report like the GDP would have a huge affect on the oil market, but I seem to be corrected. It would be a lot nicer if I had the necessary reports layed out in front of me that would affect the oil market. Usually from the news reports I get "... so and so released this report and crude oil prices dropped...", now where the hell do they get these reports?!
Well, I guess I just need to keep my ear more to the ground if I'm going to find these wonderful reports.

The price of LSCO has been slowly oscillating downward all night, now it seems like it could change direction and head back up. But it hasn't reached a low point of any kind, so I'm actually kind of partial to the market heading downward a little more for a bounce at the 89 low.

Thursday 23 June 2011

June 23, 2011 Part 2

Well, my prediction was true, it did go to the 89 range (89.70 to be exact). I should gave a more accurate prediction, but I garentee that it wouldn't be 89.70... probably more like the low 89 range.

I've been working on some stats here today, and I've come up with some interesting figures. I'm hoping to make my predictions a little more accurate from these stats. But I can say for sure that it'll be any good though... I am just fooling around with some numbers is all.

The new MIDAS/VWAP indicator work pretty good today. It helped me with my my exit points mostly.

All in all, it was a good profit day!

June 23, 2011 Part 1

I would have predicted that the price would fall to about 91.50 on the Light, Sweet Crude Oil Futures contract, but when I woke up this morning it was already down to 90.33! It fell 412 pips! Amazing.
I haven't looked at the news to see if Greece defaulted or something, but it sure seems like something big happened in the news.

I found a much better MIDAS indicator on the net last night, and it seems to be working out quite well, even in today's huge dive (you can find this indicator on the Forex-TSD forum:
http://www.forex-tsd.com/indicators-metatrader-4/21565-midas-indicator-2.html). This indicator is a lot more user-friendly, it seems to be fairly accurate... so far.

So, if the light, sweet crude market can fall to such low levels, it can probably fall a little further. But I would expect a bounce at some point. The greatest difference I've seen it bounce from is 500 points, so 89 would be my guess as to when it stops to bounce.

Major Support 1: 85.04
Major Support 2: 87.15
Minor Support 1: 89.55
Minor Support 2: 88.99

Major Resistance 1: 95.66
Major Resistance 2: 94.33
Minor Resistance 1: 91.84
Minor Resistance 2: 91.26

Wednesday 22 June 2011

June 22, 2011 Part 2

So the day has ended, and my prediction was kind of close with the high being 95.68. Not too bad: about 30 points off from my 96 prediction, and about 54 points off my 'precise' prediction of 96.24.

The MIDAS support/resistance lines worked ok as a watchable entry/exit point. Like I wrote before, it's a little off the mark, and it's a pain to create lines. But I'll still go through with it, and see if I can perfect it.

June 22, 2011 Part 1

I learned a wonderful thing here today: Hedging. This is the best method for reducing those losing profits. I don't know enough of it to go crazy with it, but it does seem like a great way to put a safety net over your capital in case of a losing trade.

I'm also fooling around with a new resistance and support method called MIDAS. Developed by a pysicist named Paul Levine it uses Volume Weighted Average Pricing (VWAP) to determine support and resistance lines that curve (that's the skinny of it). So far it's not too bad. It doesn't get it right all the time, and the indicator I have you have to manually put in the date and time of the high and low points (I know I'm little lazy on that, but it would save me time to have those support/resistance lines displayed automatically). But all in all it's pretty good. When I say "it doesn't get it right all the time", I mean that the price can go through the support/resistance lines, but it DOES stop ABOUT that given line... so yeah, not too bad.

So, I have a prediction today:
Light, Sweet Crude Oil Future for July will be going to a price of, roughly, 96. I can give you a more presice guess, but I can garuntee that it'll be wrong. Not to bring myself down or anything, I know that it'll never be bang on. So yeah, here you go:  96.20

Major support at 91.49, Minor Support 1 at 92.87, Minor Support 2 at 93.24
Major resistance at 96.68, Minor Resistance 1 at 96.18, Minor Resistance 2 at 95.77

Friday 17 June 2011

The Beginning

In the beginning there was a rookie day trader.
Slowly, but surely, said skills have been improving.
It has been 4 months since I first started, and so far I have lost the majority of my original investment. I'm down to a third of what I have invested, and I'm down to about a sixth of my top total investment capital.
I thought I'd share some of my trading experience, and maybe get the odd helpful comment on what I could do to further my investment knowledge.